Jeera settled 1.17% lower at Rs 26,175, reflecting profit booking following a recent rally. However, tight nearby supplies and concerns over lower production continued to offer underlying support. Farmers have been retaining stocks in expectation of improved prices during the October sowing period, while diminishing arrivals at key trading hubs like Unjha and Rajasthan have constrained the supply of premium-quality, export-grade bold seeds. Domestic production is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags this season, a decrease from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags. The output from Gujarat is anticipated to be in the range of 42 to 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s production is expected to fall between 48 and 50 lakh bags.
International production prospects exhibit a degree of variability, with adverse weather conditions having reportedly diminished China’s estimated output to a range of 70,000-80,000 tonnes. In contrast, production estimates for Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan stand at 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes, and 10,000-12,000 tonnes, respectively. However, enhanced production prospects in Turkey and Syria may elevate export competition for Indian cumin. European and North American buyers have re-entered the market for residue-compliant, high-specification supplies, despite ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East that continues to disrupt traditional trade flows.
Domestic demand exhibits a cautious stance, as industrial spice grinders prefer hand-to-mouth purchases rather than engaging in bulk procurement. Increasing NCDEX warehouse inventories and farmer sales to secure liquidity before the upcoming sowing season have constrained price increases. India’s jeera exports experienced a significant decline of 32% year on year, totalling 9,318 tonnes in July 2026. Furthermore, cumulative exports from April to July decreased by 27%, amounting to 53,462 tonnes compared to 73,026 tonnes during the same period last year. Exports to Singapore experienced a remarkable increase of 889%, reaching 2,842 tonnes, while shipments to Libya rose significantly by 450% to 341 tonnes.
In contrast, exports to China saw a substantial decline of 88%, falling to 710 tonnes, underscoring vulnerabilities in this key market. In Unjha, a significant spot market, prices experienced a decline of 0.69%, settling at Rs 26,022.4. Technically, jeera is experiencing a long unwinding phase, as evidenced by a 2.46% decrease in open interest to 9,150 contracts, coupled with a price decline of Rs 310. Support is positioned at Rs 25,570, with an additional level at Rs 24,960. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 26,760, beyond which prices may approach Rs 27,340.
