Jeera concluded 1.84% higher at Rs. 26,810, driven by the contraction in supplies of premium-quality bold seeds, diminished arrivals, and anticipations of enhanced export demand during the lean season. Farmers are strategically withholding stocks in anticipation of enhanced prices during the October sowing period, as the futures curve consistently indicates a constrained immediate supply. However, aggressive selling by farmers to generate cash for the upcoming season, increasing NCDEX warehouse stocks, and cautious procurement by industrial spice grinders are constraining the potential for price appreciation.
Export demand presents a varied landscape, with purchasers from Europe and North America concentrating on residue-compliant, high-specification lots. Meanwhile, geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to disrupt logistics and apply downward pressure on conventional demand. Increased production forecasts in Turkey and Syria are placing upward pressure on Indian export premiums. Domestic production estimates indicate that India’s cumin output is projected to decline to 90-92 lakh bags this year, a decrease from 1.10 crore bags in the preceding year. Gujarat’s production is estimated to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan’s output is projected to range from 48 to 50 lakh bags.
Adverse weather conditions have resulted in a downward revision of China’s production estimates, which are now projected to be between 70,000 and 80,000 tonnes. In contrast, Syria’s output is projected to fall between 9,000 and 10,000 tonnes, whereas Turkey’s production is estimated to be in the range of 10,000 to 11,000 tonnes, and Afghanistan’s output is expected to vary from 10,000 to 12,000 tonnes. Blight outbreaks in specific areas of Gujarat have negatively affected both the quality and quantity of the harvest, while the availability of export-grade bold seeds is declining more swiftly than the total physical supply. Favourable weather conditions in northwestern India have accelerated the harvesting and drying processes. However, the decline in arrivals in Unjha and Rajasthan is contributing to price support.
In Unjha, a notable spot market, prices saw a decrease of 0.38%, concluding at Rs. 25,577.95, which contrasts with the upward trend noted in futures. Technically, jeera is witnessing fresh buying activity, as indicated by a 1.33% increase in open interest to 9,132 contracts, alongside a price rise to Rs. 485, suggesting a strong bullish sentiment. Immediate support is located at Rs. 26,460, below which prices could face challenges at Rs. 26,120. Resistance is noted at Rs. 27,030, and a sustained movement above this level could drive prices toward Rs. 27,250.
