Jeera closed significantly higher by 4.4% at Rs 26,310, bolstered by a reduction in the availability of premium-quality bold seeds, forecasts of decreased production, and expectations of enhanced export demand during the lean season. Arrivals at key trading hubs, such as Unjha in Gujarat and Rajasthan, have begun to decline, as farmers retain their stocks in hopes of securing improved prices during the October sowing season. While the general physical availability stays fairly consistent, the diminishing supply of export-grade, high-purity seeds is contributing to upward pressure on prices in the near-term futures contracts.
Production estimates suggest that India’s cumin output may decrease to 90-92 lakh bags this season, down from 1.10 crore bags in the previous year. The production in Gujarat is projected to be between 42-45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s output is expected to range from 48-50 lakh bags. Internationally, adverse weather has reportedly diminished China’s production outlook to 70,000-80,000 tonnes, whereas Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are projected to yield 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes, and 10,000-12,000 tonnes, respectively. However, the potential for upside was constrained by farmer selling, increasing NCDEX warehouse stocks, cautious industrial purchasing, and anticipations of enhanced production in Turkey and Syria.
India’s jeera exports experienced a notable decline of 32% year-on-year, totalling 9,318 tonnes in July 2026. Furthermore, cumulative exports for the period from April to July decreased by 27%, amounting to 53,462 tonnes, down from 73,026 tonnes in the same timeframe the previous year. While cumulative exports to Singapore experienced a remarkable increase of 889% to reach 2,842 tonnes, and shipments to Libya rose significantly by 450% to 341 tonnes, exports to China saw a substantial decline of 88%, falling to 710 tonnes.
This trend underscores a notable weakness in a key market. In Unjha, a prominent spot market, prices rose by 0.11% to Rs 25,578.05. Technically, jeera is experiencing new buying activity, as open interest has increased by 4.42% to 8,715 contracts, while prices have risen by Rs 1,110. Immediate support is positioned at Rs 25,580, succeeded by Rs 24,860, whereas resistance is identified at Rs 26,790. A sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 27,280, whereas a break below support may trigger profit booking.
