Turmeric futures declined by 0.72%, closing at Rs 15,484, influenced by anticipations of a significant increase in new arrivals at Erode in the coming 10 to 15 days. The increase in acreage, bolstered by beneficial rainfall during the sowing period, has contributed to a decline in sentiment. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, reflecting a 4% increase year-on-year, with fresh output anticipated at 11.41 lakh tonnes.

At the national level, dried production is projected at 90 lakh bags, an increase from 82.5 lakh bags in the previous season. Nevertheless, diminished carry-forward inventories and below-average arrivals are constraining the potential for further declines. Weather disruptions, characterized by unseasonal heavy rains during August and September, impacted approximately 15% of the crop in certain areas of Marathwada, resulting in yield losses ranging from 15% to 20% in specific pockets.

Nonetheless, Maharashtra’s dried output is projected to increase to 54 lakh bags, up from 47.5 lakh bags in the previous year. Other states collectively may yield approximately 40 lakh bags, an increase from 35 lakh bags. Export demand continues to exhibit strength, as evidenced by shipments from April to December 2025, which increased by 3.99% to 142,386 tonnes. In contrast, imports experienced a significant decline of 41.54%. In Nizamabad, prices increased by 0.02% to reach 15,836.15.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 0.3% decline in open interest, now at 18,100 lots. Immediate support is identified at Rs 15,212, with a potential breach leading to a test of Rs 14,942. Resistance is positioned at Rs 15,750, and a sustained movement beyond this threshold may drive prices towards Rs 16,018.