Turmeric prices experienced a decline of 2.35%, settling at Rs 15,596, influenced by anticipations of a significant increase in fresh arrivals at Erode in the upcoming 10 to 15 days. Enhanced acreage, bolstered by favorable precipitation, further contributed to the pressure. For the 2025–26 season, the estimated acreage stands at 3.02 lakh hectares, reflecting a 4% increase year-on-year, while fresh production is projected to reach 11.41 lakh tonnes.

Nonetheless, the potential drawbacks seem constrained. Arrivals remain below the typical levels, with both farmers and stockists maintaining reduced inventories, thereby creating a buffer in anticipation of the peak new crop supplies. Weather-related challenges, such as waterlogging and disease outbreaks in certain regions of Maharashtra, have impacted approximately 15% of the area, resulting in localized yield reductions of 15–20%.

Notwithstanding this, the all-India dried output is projected at 90 lakh bags, an increase from 82.5 lakh bags in the previous season; however, diminished carry-forward stocks limit the actual supply enhancement. Demand continues to exhibit strong support. During the period from April to December 2025, exports increased by 3.99%, reaching 142,386 tonnes, whereas imports experienced a significant decline of 41.54%, resulting in a constriction of domestic availability. In Nizamabad, spot prices increased by 0.64% to Rs 15,833.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 0.36% decline in open interest, which now stands at 18,155. Immediate support is identified at Rs 15,340 and Rs 15,080, whereas resistance is positioned at Rs 16,025. A breach of this level may propel prices towards Rs 16,460.