Jeera experienced a slight decline of 0.09%, concluding at Rs 22,875 as new crop arrivals commenced in significant mandis. Anticipated increases in supplies starting in March are contributing to a decline in sentiment. Stable stock levels and muted export demand have exerted downward pressure on prices, despite low arrivals at Unjha and the continued ability of premium-quality cumin to secure higher rates. Nonetheless, the potential drawbacks seem constrained.

Sowing in Gujarat has decreased by 14.34% year-on-year, covering an area of 4.08 lakh hectares. The total production for 2026 is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a significant decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat is projected to yield 42–45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan is anticipated to achieve a production of 48–50 lakh bags. The risks associated with aphid infestations in Rajasthan, coupled with the sluggish sowing progress in Gujarat attributed to unprepared fields, present further challenges. Farmers continue to retain approximately 20 lakh bags, yet a limited fraction is anticipated to enter the market, resulting in substantial carry-forward stocks.

On a global scale, production in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan is either diminished or encountering obstacles related to weather and geopolitical factors. India’s exports for the period of April to November 2025 experienced a decline of 10.3% compared to the previous year, indicating subdued international demand, even as November showed an improvement in performance.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 1.1% decrease in open interest. Support levels are identified at Rs 22,660 and Rs 22,450, whereas resistance is positioned at Rs 23,080; a breakout may challenge the Rs 23,290 mark.