Jeera declined by 0.48% to close at Rs 22,845 as new crop arrivals commenced in certain mandis, with expectations of increased supplies beginning in March. Established equities and muted demand for exports also exerted downward pressure on prices. Nonetheless, the downside continues to be mitigated. Delayed sowing and weather-related challenges, particularly in Gujarat, have sustained apprehensions regarding supply. Sowing in Gujarat has decreased by 14.34% year-on-year, totaling 4.08 lakh hectares, marking one of the slowest seasons observed in recent years.

In Unjha, the influx of arrivals remains limited, and premium-quality cumin continues to attract higher prices, despite a slight decline in overall spot prices to Rs 22,924.80. It is estimated that farmers are currently holding approximately 20 lakh bags, with nearly 16 lakh bags expected to be carried forward. Production this season is estimated to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decrease from last year’s 1.10 crore bags, primarily attributed to a reduction in acreage.

Globally, output concerns in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, along with lower-than-expected production in China, provide support; however, export demand from India continues to exhibit price sensitivity. From April to November, exports experienced a year-on-year decline of 10.3%, even with an increase in shipments noted in November.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 3.32% decrease in open interest alongside a price decline of Rs 110. Immediate support is identified at Rs 22,660, with additional decline anticipated toward Rs 22,470. Resistance is positioned at Rs 23,110, with a potential breakout that may challenge Rs 23,370.