Jeera prices yesterday concluded with an increase of 1.68% at Rs 23,870, bolstered by weather-related challenges and postponed sowing, which persist in maintaining a robust market sentiment. Sowing in Gujarat, a crucial producing state, has experienced a notable slowdown in recent years due to inadequate field preparation, with acreage reported at 3.98 lakh hectares, reflecting a significant decline of 16.31% compared to the previous year. Arrivals at Unjha have been notably low, with high-quality cumin maintaining its premium pricing, which provides near-term support.

Nonetheless, the potential for upward movement is constrained by ample current supplies and weak export demand. While there has been a noted uptick in purchasing interest from Gulf nations and China, demand continues to exhibit significant price sensitivity, with existing export obligations primarily fulfilled through current inventory levels. Market participants also pointed to the end of the retail season and the ongoing absence of foreign buyers as elements limiting additional increases. The Diwali holidays in various markets have led to a reduction in arrivals, thereby constraining spot availability. On the policy front, the GST Council’s decision to reduce GST to 5% is anticipated to bolster FMCG exports and enhance domestic consumption.

On the supply side, it is estimated that farmers are holding approximately 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded by the end of the season. This suggests carry-forward stocks of around 16 lakh bags. Current season production is projected to be lower at 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags in the previous year, indicative of decreased sowing activities. Global supplies are constrained by reduced output estimates from China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan; however, this has not resulted in robust overseas demand. During the period from April to November 2025, jeera exports experienced a year-on-year decline of 10.3%, notwithstanding an increase in shipments observed in November compared to the previous year. Spot prices at Unjha concluded slightly lower at Rs 23,818.5.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 1.71% decrease in open interest to 5,352, coinciding with a price increase of Rs 395. Support is identified at Rs 23,560; a decline below this level may lead to a test of Rs 23,260. Conversely, resistance is established at Rs 24,050, with a breakthrough potentially driving prices toward Rs 24,240.