Jeera prices experienced a slight decline of 0.65% yesterday, settling at Rs 23,865. This decrease can be attributed to the availability of comfortable near-term supplies and a lack of robust export demand, alongside sufficient existing stocks. Market participants linked the observed weakness primarily to the end of the retail season and ongoing lack of engagement from international buyers, as current export activities are predominantly satisfied by existing inventories. Spot prices in Unjha, a key benchmark market, have decreased by 0.17% to Rs 23,647.3, indicating a cautious trade sentiment.

Nonetheless, the potential drawbacks are constrained by weather-induced interruptions and postponed planting, especially in Gujarat, which is experiencing one of the most sluggish sowing seasons in recent years. In Gujarat, jeera sowing has reached 3,98,438 hectares, reflecting a decline of 16.31% year-on-year from the previous year’s 4,76,097 hectares, attributed to fields not being adequately prepared. Arrivals in Unjha are currently subdued, and high-quality cumin continues to command premium prices.

Logistical challenges and adverse weather conditions in India and the Middle East are contributing to constrained supplies, thereby providing upward pressure on prices. Furthermore, the reduction of GST to 5% is anticipated to bolster FMCG demand and enhance domestic consumption. On the supply front, total cumin production this year is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, a significant decline from last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat projected to produce 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 0.71% decrease in open interest as prices declined by Rs 155. Support is identified at Rs 23,710, beneath which prices could potentially approach Rs 23,550. Conversely, resistance is established at Rs 24,110, followed by Rs 24,350.