Jeera prices experienced a notable decline of 2.39%, closing at Rs 22,065. This drop can be attributed to ample supplies and a lack of robust export demand, alongside sufficient existing stocks. Nonetheless, the potential for downside appears constrained, as disruptions related to weather and postponed sowing persist in providing fundamental support to prices. As of 29 December 2025, jeera sowing in Gujarat reached 3.99 lakh hectares, reflecting a decline of 14.2% year-on-year. This downturn marks one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years, attributed to irregular rainfall patterns and inadequately prepared fields.

Arrivals at the Unjha market are notably low, with high-quality cumin fetching premium prices, indicative of constrained near-term supply. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has exhibited slight enhancement; however, it continues to be significantly influenced by price sensitivity. Market participants observed that the recent downturn can be attributed primarily to the end of the retail season and ongoing lack of engagement from international purchasers, as current export obligations are being fulfilled from available inventories. It is estimated that farmers are currently holding approximately 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded before the end of the season.

This situation will result in a significant carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags, primarily attributed to a decrease in sowing activities. Jeera exports from April to October 2025 experienced a decline of 13.21% compared to the previous year, highlighting the persistent weakness in international demand.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 4.86% decrease in open interest to 3,645, accompanied by a price decline of Rs 540. Support is identified at Rs 21,800; a decline below this level could lead to a test of Rs 21,540. Resistance is established at Rs 22,520, and a breach of this threshold may propel prices toward Rs 22,980.