Jeera prices concluded the trading session with a decline of 1.23%, settling at Rs 20,855. This downturn can be attributed to ample supplies and a lack of robust export demand, alongside sufficient existing inventories. Market sentiment exhibited a degree of caution, as international demand persisted in being predominantly influenced by price sensitivity, with existing export needs being satisfied from the stocks on hand. During the period from April to September 2025, exports experienced a significant decline of 14.51% year-on-year, underscoring the persistent weakness in external demand, even as there was a noted improvement in September shipments when assessed on both a monthly and annual basis. Nonetheless, the decline in prices was constrained by weather-related apprehensions and postponed planting in crucial agricultural areas.

As of December 15, jeera sowing in Gujarat reached 3.24 lakh hectares, representing a decline of nearly 14% relative to the previous year, indicative of inconsistent rainfall and inadequately prepared fields. Gujarat is experiencing one of the most sluggish sowing seasons in recent years, contributing to uncertainty regarding production outcomes. Arrivals at the Unjha market were notably subdued, with high-quality cumin commanding premium prices. Logistical and weather challenges across India and the Middle East have contributed to a constrained supply situation in the near term, thereby offering a degree of price support.

On the supply front, it is estimated that farmers are holding approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded before the season concludes, resulting in substantial carry-forward stocks. Production this season is anticipated to decline to approximately 90–92 lakh bags, compared to 1.10 crore bags in the previous year, primarily due to diminished sowing. Additionally, persistent weak overseas demand continues to limit potential gains. The decision by the GST Council to reduce the GST rate to 5% is expected to bolster both FMCG exports and domestic demand.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing renewed selling pressure, evidenced by a 5.4% increase in open interest to 3,279, coinciding with a price decline of Rs 260. Jeera exhibits support at Rs 20,710, with a breach below this level potentially leading to a test of Rs 20,560. Resistance is identified at Rs 21,100, and a breach above this level may propel prices toward Rs 21,340.