Jeera futures continued their downward trajectory, closing 2.23% lower at Rs 21,710, influenced by ample supplies and a lack of robust export demand in the context of sufficient carryover stocks. Sowing in Gujarat as of 01 December 2025 decreased by 7.74%, totaling 1.94 lakh hectares compared to 2.11 lakh hectares in the previous year, attributed to uneven rainfall that hindered field preparation. Arrivals at Unjha continue to be subdued, maintaining firmness in good-quality cumin; however, the prevailing sentiment remains cautious owing to restricted overseas purchasing activity.

Export demand from Gulf nations and China has seen a slight improvement, yet it remains sensitive to price fluctuations. Concurrently, logistical challenges in India and the Middle East persist, further constraining supply. In light of subdued demand, the potential for further declines appears limited due to postponed sowing, apprehensions regarding weather conditions, and reduced arrivals.

The decision by the GST Council to reduce the GST rate to 5% is anticipated to bolster consumption related to FMCG and enhance export competitiveness. Farmers are said to possess approximately 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded this season, resulting in an estimated carryover of 16 lakh bags. India’s production for the season is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat is anticipated to contribute 42 to 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is expected to produce 48 to 50 lakh bags.

Global output from China, Turkey, Syria, and Afghanistan has diminished as a result of unfavorable weather conditions. From April to September 2025, exports experienced a decline of 14.51%, totaling 1.01 lakh tonnes. However, shipments in September increased by 22.93% compared to August. There is a noticeable increase in selling pressure, as evidenced by a 1.81% rise in open interest to 3,213. Immediate support is positioned at Rs 21,410; a breach of this level could see a test of Rs 21,110. Resistance is established at Rs 22,240, and a breach above this level could propel prices toward Rs 22,770.