Jeera yesterday concluded with a gain of 0.66% at Rs 19,885, driven by short covering following a period of recent weakness attributed to lackluster export demand after the retail season. Prices had previously faced downward pressure owing to ample domestic supplies and a lack of significant foreign buying interest, as current export obligations are being fulfilled from existing inventories.

Sentiment has shown improvement following the GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate on specific FMCG items to 5%, a move anticipated to enhance both domestic and export demand. Market participants estimate that farmers still hold approximately 20 lakh bags of jeera, with only 3 to 4 lakh bags expected to be traded by the end of the season, leading to a carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags.

Production for the current season is anticipated to reach 90–92 lakh bags, which is a slight decline from last year’s 1.10 crore bags, attributed to a decrease in sowing activities. Gujarat’s production is projected to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags. Rajasthan is projected to yield approximately 48–50 lakh bags. Adverse weather conditions worldwide have led to reductions in production estimates for China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. During the period from April to August 2025, jeera exports experienced a decline of 17.02% year-on-year, totaling 85,977 tonnes.

However, exports in August showed an increase of 3.24% compared to the previous year. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 9.6% decline in open interest to 1,440, alongside a price increase of Rs 130. Jeera encounters support levels at Rs 19,800 and Rs 19,700, with resistance identified at Rs 20,000 and Rs 20,100.