Jeera yesterday concluded the trading session down by 1.14% at Rs 19,905, reflecting a decline in export demand subsequent to the conclusion of the retail season, coupled with lackluster purchasing activity from international markets. The decrease was ascribed to ample supplies, sufficient carryover stocks, and subdued export demand. Numerous markets experienced closures or limited activity as a result of the Diwali holidays, which contributed to decreased arrivals and subdued trading volumes.

Nonetheless, the downside was limited as targeted purchasing surfaced at lower levels, bolstered by diminished arrivals and the GST council’s resolution to reduce the GST rate to 5%, anticipated to enhance FMCG exports and domestic consumption. On the supply front, it is estimated that farmers are holding around 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded by the end of the season. This situation results in a significant carry-forward stock of approximately 16 lakh bags.

National production for the current season is estimated to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat and Rajasthan are expected to contribute approximately 42 to 50 lakh bags each. Globally, diminished production in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan may bolster prices in the medium term, notwithstanding the current lackluster export activity.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 15.37% decline in open interest to 1,965, accompanied by a price decrease of Rs 230. Jeera currently has support levels at Rs 19,830 and further down at Rs 19,750. Resistance is identified at Rs 20,060, with a potential upward movement likely to test Rs 20,210.