Jeera concluded yesterday with a 0.45% increase, reaching Rs 20280, bolstered by strategic purchasing in the context of diminished arrivals during the Diwali holiday period, which curtailed market activity. Nonetheless, the increases were constrained by subdued export demand following the retail season. Sentiment experienced a modest uptick following the GST Council’s decision to reduce the GST rate to 5%, a strategic adjustment anticipated to bolster FMCG exports and enhance domestic consumption.

Notwithstanding this, aggregate demand continues to be subdued as international purchasers remain inactive, and current inventory levels are adequate to satisfy present export requirements. Farmers currently retain approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with projections indicating that only 3–4 lakh bags will be transacted by the season’s conclusion, resulting in a substantial carry-forward inventory of nearly 16 lakh bags. For the 2025 season, production is projected to range from 90 to 92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags, attributed to a decrease in the sowing area. Gujarat’s output is anticipated to reach 42–45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan’s production is forecasted at 48–50 lakh bags.

On the global front, production in China, Turkey, Syria, and Afghanistan has experienced a slight decline attributed to unfavorable weather conditions. During the period from April to August 2025, jeera exports experienced a decline of 17.02% compared to the previous year, totaling 85,977 tonnes.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a decline in open interest of -3.9% to 3,030, accompanied by a price increase of Rs 90. Support is identified at Rs 20,000, with an additional level at Rs 19,720. Resistance appears to be at Rs 20,580, and a breach above this level could lead to a target of Rs 20,880.