Jeera concluded the day with a notable increase of 3.46% at Rs 20,190, driven by value buying in the context of reduced arrivals, as the Diwali holidays in various markets limited inflows. Nonetheless, the potential for growth was constrained by weak export demand following the retail season. Support emerged following the GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate to 5%, which is anticipated to enhance FMCG exports and stimulate domestic consumption.

Notwithstanding this, market sentiment remained cautious as ample supplies and subdued foreign interest persisted in exerting downward pressure on prices. Farmers currently retain approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with projections indicating that only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the conclusion of the season. This scenario suggests a carry-forward stock estimated at around 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is anticipated to be in the range of 90–92 lakh bags, which is a slight decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags, attributed to a decrease in the sowing area. Gujarat’s output is anticipated to range between 42 and 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s is expected to fall between 48 and 50 lakh bags.

Globally, production in China is estimated to be between 70,000 and 80,000 tonnes, whereas Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are projected to produce approximately 9,000 to 12,000 tonnes each. In the context of diminished global supply, India’s exports for the period of April to August 2025 experienced a decline of 17.02%, totaling 85,977 tonnes compared to 1.03 lakh tonnes in the previous year, indicative of subdued foreign purchasing activity. In Unjha, a significant spot market, prices decreased by 0.68% to 18,796.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing renewed buying activity, as evidenced by a 1.74% increase in open interest, bringing it to 3,153. Support levels are identified at Rs 19,790 and Rs 19,380, whereas resistance is anticipated at Rs 20,450 and Rs 20,700 on the upside.