Jeera prices increased by 0.37% to Rs 19,225, driven by short covering after recent declines that were prompted by weak export demand following the conclusion of the retail season. The downside appeared constrained as sentiment enhanced following the GST Council’s decision to lower the tax rate to 5%, a strategic maneuver anticipated to bolster FMCG exports and underpin domestic consumption.

Notwithstanding this, the general sentiment in the market remained cautious, attributed to ample supply levels and subdued foreign interest, as current export demands are predominantly satisfied by existing inventories. Farmers are said to be in possession of approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded prior to the conclusion of the season. This situation results in a significant carry-forward stock estimated at around 16 lakh bags. Production prospects remain stable, with national output projected at approximately 90–92 lakh bags this season, a slight decrease from last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat’s production is anticipated to reach 42–45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan’s output is estimated at 48–50 lakh bags.

Globally, production estimates have been adjusted downward in China, Syria, and Turkey as a result of unfavorable weather conditions, which may ultimately bolster Indian exports when demand recovers. Nevertheless, jeera exports from April to July 2025 experienced a decline of 19.81% compared to the previous year, totaling 73,026 tonnes, indicative of weak global demand.

From a technical perspective, the market experienced short covering, evidenced by a 0.67% decrease in open interest to 3,558 contracts, accompanied by a price increase of Rs 70. Jeera exhibits immediate support levels at Rs 19,160 and Rs 19,070, while resistance is identified at Rs 19,300 and Rs 19,350. A breakout above Rs 19,350 may catalyze additional upward momentum.