Jeera yesterday settled lower by -0.31% at Rs 19,350, influenced by subdued domestic and export demand after the retail season came to an end. Market participants observed that subdued demand from international markets, along with ample supplies, has exerted downward pressure on prices. Demand remains subdued, with current export requirements being met from existing stock.

It is estimated that farmers currently possess approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with projections indicating that only 3-4 lakh bags may be traded by the conclusion of the season. This scenario suggests a potential carryover stock nearing 16 lakh bags. On the production front, this season’s output is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, a decrease from last year’s 1.10 crore bags, attributed to a reduction in sowing area. Gujarat’s production is estimated to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan’s contribution is anticipated to be in the range of 48 to 50 lakh bags.

Globally, production has faced setbacks in critical regions including China, Turkey, Syria, and Afghanistan as a result of unfavorable weather conditions, while Indian exports continue to underperform. Jeera exports from April to July 2025 experienced a significant decline of 19.81%, falling to 73,026.35 tonnes compared to 91,070.02 tonnes in the previous year. In July, exports experienced a decline of 20.83% compared to the same month last year and a decrease of 15.58% from the previous month, highlighting the persistent weakness in overseas demand. In Unjha, the benchmark spot market, prices concluded slightly lower at 19,285.1 rupees, reflecting a decrease of -0.03%.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a decrease in open interest of -1.33%, bringing the total to 3,549. Immediate support is identified at Rs 19,300, with the possibility of testing Rs 19,260 if this level is breached. Resistance appears to be at Rs 19,390, and a breakthrough above this level could pave the way towards Rs 19,440.