Jeera yesterday settled flat at Rs 19410, reflecting a stable price point, as weak domestic and export demand following the retail season contributed to an overall subdued sentiment. Market participants noted that the current environment is characterized by ample supplies and subdued export interest, resulting in demand being predominantly satisfied by existing inventories.

Farmers currently retain approximately 20 lakh bags, with an anticipated trade of only 3–4 lakh by the conclusion of the season. This situation results in a substantial carry-forward stock estimated at around 16 lakh bags. Notwithstanding this, the potential for downside seems limited, as the GST Council’s resolution to reduce the GST rate to 5% could offer a degree of support to FMCG exports and domestic consumption. On the supply side, production this season is anticipated to be approximately 90–92 lakh bags, a decrease from last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat contributing 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags.

Export data corroborated this sluggishness, with exports from April to July 2025 declining by 19.81% to 73,026 tonnes relative to the same period in the previous year. In July, shipments experienced a significant decline, falling by 20.83% compared to the same month last year and decreasing by 15.58% from the previous month. In the Unjha spot market, prices experienced a slight increase of 0.21%, reaching 19,319.5.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 0.25% decline in open interest to 3,597 contracts, while prices have remained stable. Jeera currently has support at Rs 19,310, and a decline below this level could lead to a test of Rs 19,210. Resistance is identified at Rs 19,510, with potential targets at Rs 19,610 if this level is surpassed.