Turmeric experienced an increase of 1.95% yesterday, closing at Rs 12,336, bolstered by supply concerns stemming from recent rainfall that adversely affected standing crops in key agricultural regions. Significant rainfall in Nanded has affected approximately 15% of the cultivated area, leading to concerns regarding potential yield outcomes.

Meanwhile, the IMD’s forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in September across parts of South India has further impacted the production outlook. Nonetheless, the potential for upward momentum appears limited as the earlier favorable monsoon conditions have led to increased sowing, with turmeric acreage anticipated to increase by 15–20% this season. For the 2024–25 period, the area under cultivation is projected to reach 3.30 lakh hectares, reflecting an increase of approximately 10% compared to the previous year. Currently, the supply dynamics indicate that turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearing depletion, with no new arrivals documented over the past two days.

At the Duggirala market, fresh arrivals are attracting robust buyer interest, as new produce commands a significant premium over older stocks owing to superior quality. Daily trading activity continues to exhibit strength, with averages ranging from 1,000 to 1,200 bags, and approximately 50 to 55% of the new crop has been transacted thus far. In the realm of exports, shipments from April to July 2025 experienced a year-on-year increase of 2.29%, totaling 63,020 tonnes. Notably, July exports saw a slight decline of 0.27% year-on-year, yet demonstrated a significant improvement of 9.31% compared to June.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a decline in open interest of -1.55% to 16,225, alongside a price increase of Rs 236. Support is positioned at Rs 12,048, and a breach below this level could lead to a decline towards Rs 11,762, whereas resistance is identified at Rs 12,594, beyond which the Rs 12,854 level may be approached.