Turmeric futures experienced a notable increase of 3.80%, closing at Rs 22,392. This rise can be attributed to constrained spot supplies and heightened apprehensions regarding the possible effects of El Niño on the ongoing crop sowing. Market sentiment improved as insufficient rainfall in various producing areas heightened concerns over reduced yields, while decreasing carry-forward stocks further constrained overall availability. Industry estimates indicate that carry-forward inventories have decreased to approximately 15 lakh bags, a notable reduction from the over 20 lakh bags noted in the previous season, thereby offering substantial support to prices. Fundamentally, the market continues to concentrate on meteorological developments and planting advancements.

Turmeric acreage is projected to rise by 16.05% year-on-year in 2026, significantly exceeding the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, driven by appealing prices that are near multi-year highs. Recent improvements in monsoon rainfall across major turmeric-growing regions have alleviated immediate concerns regarding crop prospects and are anticipated to expedite sowing activity. However, traders continue to closely monitor rainfall distribution, as uneven precipitation associated with El Niño could still impact crop development and production. Meanwhile, the selling activity by farmers during the current harvest season has led to an increase in spot market supplies.

However, stockist purchasing continues to be cautious, influenced by the uncertainty regarding the forthcoming crop. Export demand persists in offering fundamental support. India’s turmeric exports experienced a slight year-on-year decline of 1%, totalling 18,960 tonnes in May. Meanwhile, cumulative exports for the months of April and May remained largely stable. Robust demand from China, Oman, Yemen, and Italy has mitigated weakness in other markets, illustrating the persistence of international consumption. Spot prices in the major Nizamabad market exhibited an increase of 1.89%, reflecting robust domestic demand.

Turmeric is currently experiencing new buying activity, as evidenced by a 1.03% rise in open interest to 29,420 contracts, coinciding with an increase in prices. Immediate support is positioned at Rs 21,644, with subsequent support at Rs 20,894, while resistance is identified at Rs 22,990. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs 23,586.