Turmeric prices declined by 1.3% to close at Rs 16,148, as traders and stockists realized profits following the recent surge. This decline occurred notwithstanding lower-than-normal arrivals in key mandis, as numerous farmers persist in withholding stocks in expectation of improved prices in the future. Weather disruptions, characterized by unseasonal rains and disease pressure in Maharashtra and Telangana, have adversely affected yields, with reports indicating nearly 15% crop damage in certain areas.

Production for the 2025–26 season is projected to be approximately 11.41 lakh tonnes, with dried output anticipated at 90 lakh bags, an increase from 82.5 lakh bags in the previous year. The increase in acreage, approximately 4% compared to the previous year, has somewhat mitigated yield losses; however, diminished carry-forward stocks are contributing to a constrained overall supply.

Concerns regarding quality, such as rhizome rot and the risks associated with aflatoxin, continue to be prevalent in certain areas. Meanwhile, export trends exhibit a mixed picture—January shipments declined by 19% year-on-year; however, cumulative exports show a slight increase, suggesting stable underlying demand.

On the technical front, the market is experiencing new selling pressure, as open interest increased by 3.42% to 15,275, while prices declined by Rs 212. Turmeric exhibits immediate support at Rs 16,014, with potential further decline towards Rs 15,880 should this level be breached. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 16,370, and a movement beyond this threshold could propel prices towards Rs 16,592.