Turmeric prices experienced a modest decline, decreasing by 0.21% to close at Rs 15,532, primarily driven by anticipations of heightened arrivals in significant markets such as Erode in the forthcoming weeks. The expectation of increased supplies, coupled with a rise in acreage due to beneficial rainfall, is exerting downward pressure on prices. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is anticipated to increase by approximately 4% compared to the previous year, with production expected to reach 11.41 lakh tonnes; however, the overall growth in supply is expected to remain moderate.

Notwithstanding this, the potential for downside seems constrained. Arrivals continue to lag behind typical levels, while robust domestic and export demand sustains a strong foundation for the market. Decreased carry-forward stocks and diminished holdings by farmers and stockists are contributing to price support.

Weather-related disruptions and disease issues have adversely affected yields in various regions, despite expectations that increased acreage will enhance overall output. Export trends exhibit a mixed picture, as January shipments have decreased compared to the previous year, while cumulative exports reflect slight growth, suggesting a stable medium-term demand outlook. Imports have experienced a significant decline, indicating a diminished reliance on foreign supply sources.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 2.22% decline in open interest, which now stands at 14,120 lots. Immediate support is identified at Rs 15,284, with additional downside potential toward Rs 15,034. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 15,962, and a movement above this threshold could drive prices toward Rs 16,390.