Turmeric prices experienced a modest decline, decreasing by 0.35% to close at Rs 14,168, as market sentiment was influenced by anticipated increases in arrivals in Erode in the coming weeks. The expansion in acreage, bolstered by beneficial precipitation, has similarly exerted some pressure. For the 2025–26 season, the area dedicated to turmeric is projected to be 3.02 lakh hectares, reflecting an increase of approximately 4% compared to the previous year, with production anticipated to reach 11.41 lakh tonnes. Nonetheless, the potential drawbacks seem constrained.

Arrivals continue to lag behind typical levels, whereas demand for both domestic and export markets remains robust. The decrease in carry-forward stocks, coupled with diminished holdings by farmers and stockists, is establishing a robust foundation for prices. Weather disruptions, characterized by significant rainfall and disease challenges, have adversely influenced yields in critical states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, with approximately 15% of the crop impacted in certain areas.

At the national level, dried turmeric output is anticipated to reach approximately 90 lakh bags, surpassing last season’s figures; however, quality concerns and localized crop damage persist in affecting supply dynamics. Export trends exhibit a mixed picture, characterized by short-term weakness alongside stable cumulative demand. In contrast, imports have experienced a notable decline, indicating a diminished dependence on foreign supply.

The market is currently experiencing a modest degree of long liquidation, as evidenced by a slight decline in open interest. Immediate support is identified at Rs 14,016, with potential further decline toward Rs 13,864. Resistance is established at Rs 14,360, and a breach above this threshold may drive prices toward Rs 14,552.