Jeera prices exhibited minimal movement, decreasing slightly by 0.05% to close at Rs 22,145, as the market adjusted to increasing arrivals while grappling with persistent supply concerns. The onset of the new harvest has commenced in significant mandis, with expectations of a further rise in supplies through March, which is likely to stabilize prices. Furthermore, ample inventory levels coupled with subdued export demand persist in dampening market sentiment. Sowing in Gujarat has experienced a significant slowdown this season, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.34% to 4.08 lakh hectares, primarily attributed to delays in field readiness.

Production is projected to decrease by approximately 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes. Gujarat’s output is projected to decline significantly, whereas Rajasthan is anticipated to mitigate some of these losses with a 15% increase in production. Emerging concerns include weather-related challenges and the risks posed by pests, notably aphid infestations.

On the demand side, the performance of exports continues to exhibit weakness. In January, exports experienced a significant decline of 48% compared to the same month last year, with cumulative shipments from April to January also decreasing by 15%. This trend indicates a lack of robust global demand and diminished purchasing interest. In light of diminished global supplies from nations such as Syria and Turkey, Indian exports have not yet gained significant traction.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new selling pressure, as evidenced by a 2.85% increase in open interest to 6,825, while prices have seen a slight decline. Immediate support is identified at Rs 22,070, with a breach below likely to test Rs 22,000. Resistance is established at Rs 22,250, and a breach of this threshold may propel prices toward Rs 22,360.