Jeera prices experienced a decline, closing 0.72% lower at Rs 22,140, attributed to the commencement of new crop arrivals in various significant mandis. Market pressure intensified as new supplies began to flow into the market, with expectations of a substantial increase in arrivals through March. Domestic availability remains comfortable, while subdued export demand has also impacted sentiment. Traders observed that the majority of current export orders are being fulfilled from existing stocks. The production outlook presents a varied picture across key agricultural regions. Overall cumin production in India is projected to decrease by approximately 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes this season.

In Gujarat, output is anticipated to decline significantly by 27% to 1.83 lakh tonnes, primarily attributed to an 18% reduction in acreage and an 11% decrease in yields, influenced in part by erratic weather patterns and disease pressures, including blight. Conversely, Rajasthan’s production is projected to increase approximately 15% to 3.29 lakh tonnes, bolstered by marginally expanded acreage and enhanced yields. Sowing in Gujarat has been reported to be 14.34% lower compared to the previous year, while there are also concerns regarding aphid infestation in Rajasthan.

In the interim, geopolitical disruptions in producing nations such as Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have constrained global supply; however, the export demand for Indian cumin continues to exhibit relative weakness. Trade data further illustrates this subdued demand trend. During the period from April to December 2025, jeera exports experienced a decline of 12.08%, totaling 145,137 tonnes, in contrast to 165,084 tonnes recorded in the corresponding period of the previous year. In the Unjha spot market, prices concluded at Rs 21,789.65, reflecting a decline of 0.74%.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new selling pressure, as open interest increased by 12.45% to 5,013 lots, while prices fell by Rs 160. Immediate support is identified around Rs 22,030, and a decline beneath this threshold may drive prices down to Rs 21,910. On the upside, resistance is anticipated near Rs 22,300, and a breach of this threshold could result in a challenge at Rs 22,450.