Jeera prices experienced an increase in the previous session, concluding 2.31% higher at Rs 22,545, bolstered by anticipations of reduced production and constrained supplies within the domestic market. Projections indicate that cumin production could decrease by approximately 5% to 5.13 lakh tonnes in the current season. In Gujarat, production is projected to decrease significantly by 27% to 1.83 lakh tonnes, attributed to an 18% reduction in acreage and an 11% decline in yields.
Conversely, Rajasthan is projected to experience a production increase of 15%, reaching 3.29 lakh tonnes, bolstered by marginally expanded acreage and enhanced yields. Irregular weather patterns and agricultural challenges, including blight and an increasing risk of aphid infestations in Rajasthan, have heightened apprehensions regarding supply stability. Sowing in Gujarat has been reported at 14.34% lower year-on-year, encompassing approximately 4.08 lakh hectares, indicative of one of the slowest sowing seasons observed in recent years. Simultaneously, geopolitical tensions in West Asia and logistical challenges have contributed to an uncertain global supply outlook, providing some support to prices.
Nonetheless, the potential for growth appears constrained as the influx of the new crop has commenced in significant markets and is anticipated to accelerate from March onwards. Export demand continues to exhibit a lackluster performance. Data from the Spices Board of India indicates that jeera exports for the period of April to December 2025 experienced a decline of 12.08%, totaling 145,137 tonnes in comparison to the corresponding period of the previous year.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new buying activity, as evidenced by an 11.83% increase in open interest to 3,915, alongside a price increase of Rs 510. Jeera exhibits immediate support at Rs 22,190, with additional downside risks potentially probing Rs 21,820. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 22,760, and a movement above this threshold could propel prices toward Rs 22,960.