Turmeric prices experienced an upward movement in the previous session, concluding at Rs 15,016, reflecting a 3.02% increase. This rise was underpinned by lower-than-average arrivals and consistent demand both domestically and for exports. Market sentiment has shown signs of improvement, with reports indicating that both farmers and stockists are maintaining limited inventories. This situation is establishing a supportive foundation for prices in anticipation of the new crop’s arrival.

Crop conditions in major producing states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka have been adversely affected by unexpected rainfall, leading to yield reductions in various regions. At the national level, dried turmeric production is projected to reach approximately 90 lakh bags, in contrast to 82.5 lakh bags from the previous season. Nevertheless, diminished carry-forward stocks have constrained the overall expansion in supply.

Nonetheless, the potential for growth may be constrained in the short term, as new shipments, especially from Erode, are anticipated to increase markedly in the coming weeks. The increase in acreage is contributing to supply expectations, with the turmeric area for the 2025–26 season estimated at approximately 3.02 lakh hectares, reflecting a year-on-year rise of about 4%. Concurrently, fresh output is anticipated to reach 11.41 lakh tonnes. Despite localized yield losses attributed to waterlogging and disease in certain areas of Marathwada, the production in Maharashtra is projected to rise to approximately 54 lakh bags.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 1.75% decline in open interest to 18,285 lots, accompanied by a price increase of Rs 440. Turmeric is presently encountering support at Rs 14,590, with additional downside protection located around Rs 14,162. On the upside, resistance is positioned around Rs 15,256, and a sustained movement beyond this threshold may propel prices towards Rs 15,494.