Jeera prices experienced an upward movement in the last session, concluding at Rs 22,185, reflecting a 2.24% increase, bolstered by expectations of tighter supply and reduced sowing in major producing areas. In Gujarat, sowing has experienced a year-on-year decline of 14.34%, totaling approximately 4.08 lakh hectares, in contrast to 4.76 lakh hectares from the previous season, which raises concerns regarding the forthcoming crop size. Current estimates indicate that India’s cumin production in 2026 may decline to approximately 90–92 lakh bags, a notable decrease from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags.
Reports of aphid infestation have emerged from several growing regions in Rajasthan, indicating an increase in crop risks. Despite these supportive factors, the potential for significant upside may be constrained as new crop arrivals have commenced in certain mandis, with supplies anticipated to rise consistently from March. Elevated inventory levels coupled with lackluster export demand are contributing to a dampened market sentiment.
During the period from April to December 2025, export shipments experienced a decline of approximately 12%, totaling 1.45 lakh tonnes, in contrast to 1.65 lakh tonnes recorded in the corresponding timeframe of the previous year. Although there has been a modest uptick in demand from Gulf countries and China, buyers continue to exhibit a strong sensitivity to price fluctuations. Farmers are currently estimated to possess approximately 20 lakh bags, yet only 3–4 lakh bags are anticipated to be traded prior to the conclusion of the season, resulting in significant carry-forward stocks.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing renewed buying interest, as evidenced by a 14.03% increase in open interest to 2,829 lots, alongside a price increase of Rs 485. Jeera is presently encountering support at Rs 21,760, with an additional downside threshold located at Rs 21,340. On the upside, resistance is positioned around Rs 22,450, and a sustained movement above this level could propel prices towards Rs 22,720.