Turmeric declined by 1.69%, closing at Rs 14,576, as market participants responded to forecasts indicating a significant increase in new arrivals at Erode in the forthcoming fortnight. The increase in acreage, bolstered by beneficial rainfall during the sowing period, has contributed to a decline in sentiment. For the 2025–26 season, the estimated acreage stands at 3.02 lakh hectares, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4%, while fresh output is projected to reach 11.41 lakh tonnes.

Nevertheless, the potential drawbacks seem constrained. Arrivals remain below the typical levels, with both farmers and stockists reportedly scaling back their inventories, thereby constraining near-term availability. Weather disruptions, characterized by significant rainfall and localized disease outbreaks in regions such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, have adversely affected agricultural yields. Although dried output is projected at 90 lakh bags compared to 82.5 lakh bags in the previous year, diminished carry-forward stocks limit the overall supply expansion.

Export demand continues to show resilience, especially from Europe and the US, as exports from April to December have increased by nearly 4% compared to the previous year. During the same period, imports declined by more than 41%, contributing to a more balanced domestic availability. In Nizamabad, a significant spot market, prices experienced a slight increase to Rs 15,836.15.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 0.37% decrease in open interest, bringing it to 18,610 lots. Immediate support is identified at Rs 14,326, with Rs 14,074 positioned beneath that level. Resistance is positioned at Rs 14,740, and a sustained movement above this level may propel prices toward Rs 14,902.