Jeera declined by 0.32% to close at Rs 21,475, influenced by the onset of the new crop in certain mandis, with expectations of increased supplies starting in March. Comfortable stock levels and subdued export activity continued to exert pressure on sentiment. Nonetheless, arrivals at Unjha are constrained, and high-quality cumin continues to attract a premium in the spot market, with prices rising to Rs 21,816.6.

On the supply side, sowing in Gujarat has decreased by 14.34% year-on-year, totaling 4.08 lakh hectares, which raises concerns regarding output. National production for 2026 is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a significant decline from the previous year’s total of 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat’s output is estimated to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, whereas Rajasthan is projected to yield 48 to 50 lakh bags.

Monitoring is underway regarding aphid infestation risks in Rajasthan, alongside weather-related disruptions in significant producing nations including China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. In the period from April to December, exports experienced a year-on-year decline of 12.08%, indicative of subdued international demand, notwithstanding a slight recovery from Gulf nations and China.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a 2.93% decline in open interest, which now stands at 4,077 lots. Immediate support is identified at Rs 21,010, with a subsequent level at Rs 20,530 below that. Resistance is positioned at Rs 21,760, and a sustained advance beyond this level may propel prices toward Rs 22,030.