Jeera prices increased by 2.46%, concluding at Rs 22,895, driven by apprehensions regarding reduced sowing and constricted supplies. In Gujarat, the area under cultivation has decreased by 14.34% year-on-year, totaling 4.08 lakh hectares, marking one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years due to the unpreparedness of many fields. National production for 2026 is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a significant decline from the previous year’s total of 1.10 crore bags. The increasing risk of aphid infestations in Rajasthan has heightened concerns regarding supply stability.

At the Unjha market, the volume of arrivals continues to be subdued, while premium-quality cumin commands elevated prices. Nonetheless, new crop arrivals have commenced in certain mandis, with expectations of improved supplies from March onwards, which could limit additional upward movement. The presence of established stocks and a lackluster demand for exports are constraining potential gains, even in light of a slight uptick in purchasing activity from Gulf nations and China.

Export data indicates that shipments from April to November 2025 experienced a decline of 10.3% year-on-year; however, exports in November surpassed those of the previous year. It is estimated that farmers are holding approximately 20 lakh bags, with a considerable carry-forward anticipated. Globally, diminished output forecasts in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan may constrict overall supply; however, sluggish foreign demand persists in exerting downward pressure on sentiment.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 1.65% decline in open interest. Support is identified at Rs 22,550 and Rs 22,210, whereas resistance is positioned at Rs 23,180; a breakout may aim for Rs 23,470.