Turmeric prices experienced a significant correction, closing 4.1% lower at Rs 16,046, as market participants responded to an expansion in acreage attributed to beneficial rainfall during the ongoing sowing season. Although increased planting has heightened expectations for better availability, the actual growth in supply is expected to be moderate. Weather irregularities, unseasonal rainfall, and disease pressure have mitigated some of the acreage gains, especially in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, where yields have been adversely affected.
Arrivals continue to fall short of the norm, with downside risks appearing constrained, as reports indicate that both farmers and stockists are maintaining significantly reduced inventories. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, reflecting an increase of approximately 4% year-on-year, while fresh production is projected to reach 11.41 lakh tonnes. At the national level, dried turmeric output is projected at 90 lakh bags, an increase compared to the previous season; however, diminished carry-forward stocks are anticipated to limit overall availability.
Despite localized yield losses of 15–20% in certain areas of Marathwada, an increase in acreage may still enhance Maharashtra’s overall production, with additional contributions expected from other states as well. Demand continues to serve as a crucial support factor, bolstered by robust domestic consumption and consistent export interest from Europe and the United States. Export performance has demonstrated resilience, with shipments from April to November 2025 increasing by nearly 5% compared to the previous year.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing renewed selling pressure, as evidenced by a 0.5% increase in open interest coupled with a decline of Rs 686 in price. Turmeric establishes a support level at Rs 15,664; a decline beneath this threshold may lead to a test of Rs 15,280. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 16,616, with a breach of this point potentially driving prices toward Rs 17,184.