Jeera prices experienced a slight decline, closing 0.4% lower at Rs 23,715, despite ongoing supply-side concerns that continue to provide support to the market. Weather-related challenges and postponed sowing, especially in Gujarat, are sustaining a robust sentiment. In Gujarat, jeera sowing is projected at 3.98 lakh hectares, reflecting a decline of 16.3% compared to the previous year. This situation marks one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent history, attributed to unprepared fields. In Unjha, the volume of arrivals remains notably low, while high-quality cumin continues to command premium prices.
Nevertheless, the potential for upward movement is limited by adequate current inventories and subdued demand for exports. While there has been a slight uptick in export inquiries from Gulf nations and China, buyers continue to exhibit a strong sensitivity to pricing. The prevailing export demand is largely satisfied by existing inventories, as traders observe the conclusion of the retail season and a continued lack of vigor in foreign purchasing activity. Farmers continue to retain approximately 20 lakh bags, yet only an estimated 3–4 lakh bags are anticipated to be traded, resulting in a substantial carry-forward inventory.
Production estimates for the current season have been adjusted downward owing to decreased acreage, with total output projected at 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags in the previous year. During the period from April to November 2025, exports experienced a decline of more than 10% compared to the previous year, indicating a lack of robust overseas demand, even in the face of supply disruptions occurring in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 1.92% decrease in open interest coupled with a Rs 95 decline in price. Jeera exhibits support at Rs 23,540; a decline beneath this level may lead to a test of Rs 23,350. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 24,010, with a potential upward movement surpassing this threshold possibly driving prices toward Rs 24,290.