Turmeric prices experienced a decline yesterday, decreasing by 0.4% to close at Rs 16,732, influenced by increased acreage in the ongoing sowing season, which dampened market sentiment. Favorable rains have stimulated planting activities, with the acreage for the 2025–26 season projected at approximately 3.02 lakh hectares, indicating an increase of around 4% compared to the previous year.

Nonetheless, supply growth is anticipated to remain moderate, given that weather irregularities and localized disease have impacted yields in significant producing states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka. Unseasonal heavy rainfall during August–September resulted in waterlogging and disease in certain regions of Marathwada, affecting approximately 15% of the area. In light of the increased acreage, the potential for downside seems constrained.

Arrivals continue to fall short of the typical levels, with both farmers and stockists markedly decreasing their inventories, thereby establishing a solid foundation in anticipation of new crop arrivals. For the period of 2025–26, new production is anticipated to reach 11.41 lakh tonnes, whereas dried output is forecasted at 90 lakh bags, an increase from the previous season’s 82.5 lakh bags. Lower carry-forward stocks, however, constrain the overall expansion in availability. Demand continues to exhibit robust strength on both domestic and international fronts, as evidenced by a nearly 5% year-on-year increase in exports from April to November 2025.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new selling pressure, as evidenced by an increase in open interest of 0.8%, reaching 16,980. Support is identified at Rs 16,624, with additional downside risk extending to Rs 16,514. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 16,846, and a breach above this level may propel prices toward Rs 16,958.