Jeera prices experienced a modest increase yesterday, rising by 0.29% to close at Rs 23,810, bolstered by weather-related challenges and postponed sowing that persist in constraining near-term supplies. Gujarat is currently experiencing one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years, attributed to fields that are not yet fully prepared. Sowing in the state is presently estimated at approximately 3.98 lakh hectares, reflecting a decline of more than 16% compared to the previous year, which has contributed to supporting prices. Arrivals at Unjha are notably subdued, with high-quality cumin consistently commanding premium prices.

Nonetheless, the potential for further gains seems limited. Comfortable carry-in stocks and subdued export demand are constraining additional advancements. Interest in exports from Gulf countries and China has seen a slight uptick; however, buyers continue to exhibit significant price sensitivity. The prevailing export demand is primarily satisfied by existing inventories, given that the retail season has largely wrapped up and international purchasing continues to be lackluster.

Farmers currently retain approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with an anticipated trade of merely 3–4 lakh bags before the season concludes, resulting in substantial carry-forward inventories. Current season production is projected to be approximately 90–92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags, primarily attributed to diminished sowing activities. Nonetheless, comparable production levels are anticipated due to improved crop conditions.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing renewed buying activity, as evidenced by an increase in open interest of 1.78%, reaching a total of 5,481. Support is identified at Rs 23,610, with potential downside risk extending to Rs 23,410. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 23,940, and a breach above this level may lead to a test of Rs 24,070.