Jeera prices increased slightly by 0.13% to close at Rs 23,900, bolstered by weather-related challenges and postponed sowing, which persist in maintaining supply-side apprehensions. Gujarat is experiencing one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years, as fields remain unprepared. The sowing area has declined significantly, down 16.31% year-on-year to approximately 3.98 lakh hectares. Arrivals at Unjha, the pivotal spot market, are notably low, and high-quality cumin continues to attract premium prices.

Disruptions in logistics and adverse weather conditions throughout India and the Middle East are constraining supply flows, thereby providing upward pressure on prices. Nonetheless, the potential for upward movement is limited by ample current inventories and lackluster export demand. Interest in exports from Gulf countries and China has seen a modest uptick; however, it continues to be significantly influenced by price fluctuations.

Meanwhile, the end of the retail season, coupled with prudent purchasing behavior from international clients, has constrained new demand. It is estimated that farmers are currently holding approximately 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded before the end of the season, resulting in a substantial carry-forward stock. Current season production is anticipated to decline to 90–92 lakh bags compared to last year’s 1.10 crore bags, although the overall supply comfort remains a significant factor influencing sentiment.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 1.4% decline in open interest alongside a price increase of Rs 30. Jeera exhibits a support level at Rs 23,720; a breach of this threshold may lead to a test of Rs 23,520. Resistance is identified at Rs 24,150, and a breakthrough could propel prices toward Rs 24,380.