Turmeric prices experienced an increase of 1.49% yesterday, closing at Rs 16,914. This rise can be attributed to arrivals that remained below normal levels, coupled with persistent demand both domestically and internationally. Market sentiment has been supported by reports indicating that both farmers and stockists have notably decreased their holdings, establishing a solid foundation in anticipation of the new crop’s arrival.

Production concerns continue to loom in significant agricultural states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, where unseasonal rainfall has adversely affected yields. This is especially evident in regions of Marathwada, where approximately 15% of the area has experienced waterlogging and disease challenges. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, reflecting an increase of approximately 4% year-on-year, while fresh production is anticipated to reach 11.41 lakh tonnes.

Dried turmeric output at the all-India level is projected to reach approximately 90 lakh bags, compared to 82.5 lakh bags in the previous season. However, anticipated lower carry-forward stocks are likely to constrain the overall increase in availability. Maharashtra’s dried production is projected at 54 lakh bags, notwithstanding localized yield losses, whereas other producing states collectively may account for approximately 40 lakh bags. Export demand continues to exhibit resilience, as shipments from April to November 2025 have increased by nearly 5% compared to the previous year, whereas imports have experienced a significant decline.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 1.19% decline in open interest, despite a price increase of Rs 248. Support is identified at Rs 16,416, beneath which prices may approach Rs 15,918, whereas resistance is positioned at Rs 17,206; a breakout above this threshold could propel prices towards Rs 17,498.