Jeera prices experienced a significant increase, closing at Rs 24,590, up 4.48%. This rise is largely attributed to weather-related disruptions and postponed sowing, which have constrained near-term supply forecasts. Uneven rainfall has hindered field preparation, resulting in one of the slowest sowing seasons in Gujarat in recent years. Jeera sowing in the state has been recorded at 3,98,438 hectares, reflecting a decline of 16.31% year-on-year, thereby amplifying supply-side concerns. Despite the pronounced rally, the potential for further upside seems limited by ample existing inventories and lackluster export demand. Traders observed a slight improvement in export interest from Gulf countries and China, although it continues to be significantly influenced by price sensitivity.

The conclusion of the retail season, coupled with ongoing inactivity from foreign buyers, has resulted in a muted overall demand, as current export requirements are predominantly satisfied by existing inventories. It is estimated that farmers are currently in possession of approximately 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded before the conclusion of the season. This situation results in a substantial carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags.

Production estimates for the current season have been adjusted downward owing to a decrease in acreage, with national output projected at 90–92 lakh bags, in contrast to 1.10 crore bags from the previous year. Globally, diminished output expectations in China, alongside disruptions in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, provide a degree of background support; however, Indian exports continue to exhibit weakness.

The market is experiencing renewed buying activity, evidenced by a 5.09% increase in open interest, coupled with a significant rise in prices. Support is established at Rs 23,970; a decline below this level could see prices testing Rs 23,340. Resistance is identified at Rs 25,000, and a persistent advance beyond this level may drive prices towards Rs 25,400.