Turmeric prices experienced a significant correction in the last session, closing down by 3.09% at Rs 17,778. This decline was influenced by anticipations of increased acreage due to favorable rainfall during the current sowing season. For the 2025–26 crop year, turmeric acreage is estimated at approximately 3.02 lakh hectares, reflecting an increase of nearly 4% year-on-year, while fresh production is projected to reach 11.41 lakh tonnes.
Nonetheless, supply growth is anticipated to stay subdued due to weather irregularities, waterlogging, and disease pressures impacting yields in significant producing states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka. Unseasonal heavy rainfall during August–September affected approximately 15% of the crop in certain areas of Marathwada, resulting in localized yield losses and concerns regarding quality. Notwithstanding the decrease in prices, the potential for further declines seems constrained by subpar arrivals, diminished carry-forward inventories, and robust demand both domestically and internationally. Reports indicate that farmers and stockists are maintaining reduced inventories, establishing a price foundation in anticipation of new crop arrivals.
Export demand continues to be robust, especially from Europe and the US, whereas Indonesia’s season has concluded with quality levels falling below the norm. During the period from April to October 2025, turmeric exports experienced a modest increase of 2.05% compared to the previous year, despite a decline in exports for October when assessed on both an annual and monthly basis. Imports declined significantly, indicating sufficient domestic supply.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing renewed selling pressure, as evidenced by a 3.65% increase in open interest to 16,175 contracts, coinciding with a significant price decline of Rs 566. Turmeric exhibits support at Rs 17,344, with potential further decline toward Rs 16,912, while resistance is identified at Rs 18,494, followed by Rs 19,212 in the event of a sustained recovery.