Turmeric prices experienced a slight decline, decreasing by 0.58% to Rs 18,378, as market participants adjusted their outlook based on anticipated increases in acreage due to favorable rainfall during the ongoing sowing season. For the 2025–26 season, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, reflecting an increase of approximately 4% year-on-year, while fresh production is projected to reach 11.41 lakh tonnes. At the national level, the production of dried turmeric is projected to reach 90 lakh bags, an increase from 82.5 lakh bags recorded in the previous season. Nonetheless, the general availability is restricted by diminished carry-forward stocks, which in turn limits the downward pressure on prices.
Arrivals persistently fall short of the norm, whereas both domestic and international demand remains robust. Reports indicate that both farmers and stockists have notably diminished their inventories, establishing a robust foundation in anticipation of new crop arrivals. Yield losses ranging from 15% to 20% have been observed in certain regions of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, attributed to unseasonal heavy rains, waterlogging, and disease challenges, impacting approximately 15% of the area in specific pockets of Marathwada.
Notwithstanding these setbacks, an increase in acreage could elevate Maharashtra’s dried turmeric production to 54 lakh bags, up from 47.5 lakh bags in the previous year, although issues related to quality, including rhizome rot and aflatoxin risk, remain a concern. Export demand continues to be robust, particularly from Europe and the US, bolstered by constrained quality supplies from Indonesia.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new selling pressure, as evidenced by a 4.39% increase in open interest to 15,445, alongside a price decline of Rs 108. Support is identified at Rs 18,116, beneath which prices could potentially approach Rs 17,852. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 18,678, and a breakout could result in a movement towards Rs 18,976.