Jeera prices exhibited further strength, concluding with an increase of 1.45% at Rs 22,730, driven by weather-related disruptions and postponed sowing that persistently support market sentiment. Sowing progress in Gujarat is markedly lagging behind the seasonal average, with acreage as of December 29 recorded at 3.99 lakh hectares, representing a decline of 14.2% compared to the previous year, indicative of irregular rainfall patterns and inadequate field preparedness. Gujarat is experiencing one of the most sluggish sowing seasons in recent years, raising significant supply concerns. In Unjha, arrivals remained subdued, and premium-quality cumin sustained elevated prices, despite a slight decline in spot prices by 0.11% to Rs 22,368.4.

Despite the short-term strength, the potential for further gains is limited by ample carry-forward inventories and subdued export demand. It is estimated that farmers are currently holding approximately 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags anticipated to be traded prior to the conclusion of the season. This situation results in substantial carry-forward stocks of nearly 16 lakh bags.

Export demand from Gulf countries and China has exhibited slight improvement; however, it continues to be sensitive to pricing, while the overall level of overseas purchasing remains lackluster. During the period from April to October 2025, jeera exports experienced a year-on-year decline of 13.21%, with shipments in October also reflecting decreases in both annual and monthly comparisons. Current season production is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s 1.10 crore bags, primarily attributed to decreased sowing activities.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 4.38% decline in open interest at 3,930, coinciding with a notable price increase of Rs 325. Support is identified at Rs 22,470, with additional downside potential to Rs 22,190, whereas resistance is established at Rs 23,010, and a breakout may challenge Rs 23,270.