Jeera prices experienced a significant increase, closing up by 4.37% at Rs 22,075, driven by weather-related challenges and postponed sowing, which persistently sustain supply concerns. In Gujarat, the principal producing state, jeera sowing as of December 15 reached 3.24 lakh hectares, reflecting a decline of nearly 14% year-on-year, attributed to irregular rainfall that hindered field preparation, thus characterizing one of the slowest sowing seasons observed in recent years. Arrivals at Unjha were notably low, with high-quality cumin fetching premium prices, while spot prices concluded at 21,202.75, reflecting an increase of 0.83%. Nonetheless, potential gains may be limited by ample carry-in inventories and subdued export demand.
Farmers are projected to retain approximately 20 lakh bags, with an anticipated trade of merely 3–4 lakh bags prior to the conclusion of the season, resulting in significant carry-forward inventories. Export demand from Gulf countries and China has shown a slight improvement; however, it continues to be sensitive to price fluctuations. Overall, international purchasing remains subdued, even in light of reduced supplies from Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, which are affected by geopolitical disruptions.
Production estimates for the current season indicate a decline in output, projected at 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags in the previous year, which is attributed to a decrease in the sowing area. Export data indicated a 13.21% decline during April–October 2025, underscoring the persistent weakness in global demand. Nonetheless, support is observed from the GST Council’s decision to reduce GST to 5%, which may bolster FMCG demand.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new buying activity, evidenced by a 3.4% increase in open interest to 4,017, coinciding with a price surge of Rs 925. Jeera exhibits support at Rs 21,380, with a potential decline testing Rs 20,690. Resistance is established at Rs 22,480, and a breach above this level may propel prices towards Rs 22,890.