Jeera prices experienced a slight increase, closing up 0.07% at Rs 21,150, as ongoing weather disruptions and postponed sowing provided continued support. In Gujarat, the principal state for cumin production, sowing reached 3.24 lakh hectares as of December 15, reflecting a decline of nearly 14% compared to the previous year, attributed to irregular rainfall that has hindered field preparation. In Unjha, the volume of arrivals has been notably low, with premium-quality cumin sustaining elevated prices, indicative of constrained near-term supply.

Nevertheless, the potential for price increases was limited by ample overall supplies and weak export demand. Market participants observed that international purchasing continues to be influenced by price sensitivity, as the majority of current export demands are being satisfied from available inventories. While there has been a slight uptick in export demand from Gulf countries and China, overall market confidence continues to exhibit weakness. The GST Council’s resolution to reduce the GST rate to 5% has bolstered expectations for both FMCG exports and domestic consumption.

Farmers are currently estimated to possess approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with a significant carry-forward stock anticipated by the conclusion of the season. Revisions to production estimates for the current season indicate a downward adjustment, attributed to decreased sowing activities, with total output projected at 90–92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags. In light of geopolitical disruptions affecting other producing nations, India’s export volumes continue to face significant pressure.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, as open interest remains steady at 3,885 while prices have increased by Rs 15. Immediate support is identified at Rs 20,990, with additional downside potential at Rs 20,830. Resistance is established at Rs 21,280, and a breach above this level may lead to a test of Rs 21,410.