Jeera prices increased by 2.79%, closing at Rs 22,120, driven by weather-related challenges and postponed sowing in key producing areas. Disparities in rainfall have hindered field preparation efforts, especially in Gujarat, resulting in one of the most sluggish sowing seasons observed in recent years. Arrivals at Unjha are notably subdued, and premium-quality cumin continues to attract elevated prices. Supply tightness continues to be a concern, driven by logistical challenges and weather-related disruptions in India and the Middle East. Nonetheless, the potential for upward movement is limited due to weak export demand, as purchasers exhibit sensitivity to pricing, and current inventories sufficiently satisfy present needs.
Domestic sentiment was bolstered following the GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate to 5%, a move anticipated to enhance FMCG demand and improve export competitiveness. Farmers currently possess approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin; however, with an anticipated trade of merely 3–4 lakh bags this season, the carry-forward inventory may reach around 16 lakh bags. Current year production estimates indicate a range of 90–92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s 1.10 crore bags.
Gujarat’s expected output stands at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is projected to produce 48–50 lakh bags. Global production presents a mixed picture, as China has adjusted its output downward in response to unfavorable weather conditions, while Turkey, Syria, and Afghanistan grapple with ongoing geopolitical disruptions. During the period from April to September 2025, jeera exports experienced a decline of 14.51%, totaling 101,898.64 tonnes.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new buying activity, as evidenced by a 1.76% increase in open interest to 3,117, alongside a price increase of Rs 600. Support is currently positioned at Rs 21,630, with additional downside potential towards Rs 21,130. Conversely, resistance is identified at Rs 22,490; a breakout above this threshold could propel prices to Rs 22,850.