Jeera yesterday concluded 1.79% lower at Rs 21,355, influenced by ample supplies and subdued export demand, as current inventories are adequate to fulfill existing obligations. Farmers are encountering challenges in commencing sowing activities owing to irregular rainfall patterns, especially in Gujarat, where the agricultural season is notably lagging behind its expected timeline. Despite the price decline, sentiment remains somewhat bolstered due to delayed sowing and weather-related uncertainties that are maintaining a constricted broader supply outlook. Arrivals at the Unjha market are limited, and premium-quality cumin persists in attracting elevated prices.

Export demand from Gulf countries and China has exhibited a modest uptick; however, it continues to be significantly influenced by price sensitivity, constraining any substantial upward momentum. Logistical disruptions in India and the Middle East are maintaining overall supply constraints; however, potential for growth is limited as the retail season has concluded and foreign buyers are predominantly inactive. Demand remains subdued, with current export commitments being managed from existing stocks.

Production for the current season is anticipated to range between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat is projected to yield 42 to 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is expected to produce 48 to 50 lakh bags. During the period from April to September 2025, jeera exports experienced a decline of 14.51%, totaling 101,898.64 tonnes. However, shipments in September saw an increase of 2.20% year-on-year and 22.93% month-on-month. In Unjha, spot prices declined by 0.27% to Rs 21,015.

The market is experiencing a phase of long liquidation, as evidenced by a 2.3% decline in open interest to 3,180, accompanied by a decrease in prices of Rs 390. Support is positioned at Rs 21,190, with additional decline anticipated toward Rs 21,020. Resistance stands at Rs 21,640, and a breakout could propel prices to Rs 21,920.