Jeera prices experienced an upward movement, concluding at Rs 21,710, reflecting a 1.24% increase, driven by unfavorable weather conditions and postponed sowing in key agricultural areas. Inconsistent precipitation has hindered agricultural preparations, resulting in Gujarat facing one of its most sluggish sowing seasons in recent years. Arrivals at Unjha are notably low, while premium-quality cumin persists in commanding elevated rates. Supply continues to be constrained as India and the Middle East encounter logistical hurdles, yet the potential for price increases is limited by sufficient domestic inventories and subdued export demand. Export purchases from Gulf nations and China have shown a modest improvement; however, they continue to exhibit significant price sensitivity.
The conclusion of the retail season, coupled with subdued overseas demand, has led to a cautious stance among traders. The GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate to 5% represents a favorable development, anticipated to bolster demand linked to FMCG and improve export competitiveness. Farmers presently possess close to 20 lakh bags; however, it is anticipated that merely 3–4 lakh bags will be transacted prior to the conclusion of the season, resulting in a substantial carry-forward inventory of approximately 16 lakh bags.
Current season production is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s 1.10 crore bags, attributed to a decrease in acreage. In Gujarat, the output is anticipated to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, while in Rajasthan, it is expected to range from 48 to 50 lakh bags. Jeera exports from April to August 2025 experienced a decline of 17.02%, totaling 85,977 tonnes; however, exports in August saw an increase of 3.24% year-on-year.
From a technical perspective, there is evidence of new buying activity, as indicated by a 1.3% increase in open interest. Support is positioned at Rs 21,480, with potential for further decline towards Rs 21,230. Resistance is established at Rs 21,910, and a breakout may propel prices toward Rs 22,090.