Jeera prices experienced an uptick, concluding at Rs 21,480, reflecting a 1.42% increase. This rise can be attributed to constrained supplies and postponed sowing, which have bolstered market sentiment, even in the face of subdued export demand. Inconsistent and inadequate precipitation in critical agricultural areas, especially Gujarat, has hindered field preparation, leading to one of the most sluggish sowing seasons observed in recent years. Arrivals at Unjha are notably subdued, and high-quality cumin continues to command a premium price.

Export demand from Gulf nations and China has exhibited a modest uptick; however, purchasing decisions continue to be significantly influenced by price sensitivity, particularly in the context of global logistical challenges and weather-related disruptions affecting India and the Middle East. The overall potential for growth appears limited, as the retail season has come to an end and foreign purchasers remain relatively inactive, fulfilling most of their needs from current inventories. Farmers currently possess approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin; however, it is anticipated that merely 3–4 lakh bags will be traded prior to the conclusion of the season, resulting in a substantial carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags.

Nonetheless, sentiment remains bolstered as the reduction of the GST rate to 5% is anticipated to stimulate exports linked to FMCG and enhance domestic consumption. Production estimates suggest that output could decline to 90–92 lakh bags this year, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, attributed to decreased sowing in key producing states. Gujarat’s production is projected to be between 42 and 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s output is anticipated to range from 48 to 50 lakh bags. During the period from April to August 2025, exports experienced a decline of 17.02% year-on-year, totaling 85,977 tonnes.

However, shipments in August saw an annual increase of 3.24%. Short covering is apparent as open interest decreased by 6.61% to 3,264. Support is positioned at Rs 21,070, with potential further decline towards Rs 20,650. Resistance is established at Rs 21,740, and a breach above this level could propel prices toward Rs 21,990.