Jeera futures experienced a decline of 0.89%, closing at Rs 21,180, influenced by a comfortable supply situation and lackluster export demand, given the ample old stock present in the domestic market. Notwithstanding the drawbacks, the decline was contained, as irregular precipitation and postponed planting persisted in providing fundamental support. Gujarat is experiencing one of the most protracted sowing seasons in recent years, attributed to erratic rainfall, which has resulted in sluggish field preparation. At the Unjha market, arrivals remained subdued, while premium-quality cumin commanded a higher price owing to restricted availability.

Export demand from Gulf countries and China has seen a slight uptick, yet remains susceptible to variations in price and freight costs. Between April and August 2025, India experienced a 17.02% year-on-year decline in Jeera exports, totaling 85,977.39 tonnes. However, shipments in August showed a modest increase of 3.24% compared to the previous year, indicating a potential recovery. Domestic production for the season is anticipated to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decrease from last year’s 1.10 crore bags.

Gujarat is expected to contribute approximately 42 to 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is projected to provide around 48 to 50 lakh bags. Reduced global production from China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan has constrained international supply, thereby partially offsetting subdued global demand. Furthermore, the decision by the GST Council to lower the GST rate to 5% is anticipated to enhance demand linked to FMCG and stimulate domestic consumption.

From a technical perspective, Jeera is experiencing new selling pressure, evidenced by a 1.04% increase in open interest, reaching 3,495 contracts. Immediate support is identified around Rs 20,840; a breach of this level could lead to a retest of Rs 20,510. Resistance is positioned at Rs 21,710, and a breakout beyond this threshold may drive prices toward the Rs 22,250 mark.