Jeera yesterday concluded 0.41% higher at 20,695, bolstered by short covering in the wake of recent declines attributed to weak export demand following the conclusion of the retail season. Market participants observed that international purchasers are predominantly dormant, as the available domestic inventories are adequate to fulfill the present export demands. Abundant supplies and lackluster export demand persist in exerting downward pressure on market sentiment. Nonetheless, the potential for downside appears constrained, attributable to reduced arrivals during the Diwali holiday season and a degree of buying at specific levels. Sentiment improved following the GST Council’s decision to lower the GST rate on jeera to 5%, a move anticipated to enhance FMCG-linked demand and bolster export competitiveness.

On the supply front, farmers reportedly hold approximately 20 lakh bags of jeera, with only 3–4 lakh bags anticipated to be traded by the conclusion of the season, resulting in a substantial carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is anticipated to mirror last year’s figures, bolstered by advantageous sowing conditions. India’s output is projected to be between 90 and 92 lakh bags, a decline from last year’s figure of 1.10 crore bags.

Gujarat is projected to yield between 42 and 45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is anticipated to produce between 48 and 50 lakh bags. Jeera exports from April to August 2025 experienced a decline of 17.02%. While shipments in August showed a year-on-year increase of 3.24%, they fell by 6% compared to the previous month, indicating a lack of consistent export momentum.

From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new buying activity, as evidenced by a 3.86% increase in open interest to 3,147, alongside a price increase of Rs 85. Support is identified at Rs 20,560, followed by the subsequent level at Rs 20,430. Resistance is positioned at Rs 20,810, and a breakout could propel prices towards Rs 20,930.